Tampa Bay took a beating Friday night, falling 6-1 to Chicago in a series opener that wasn't nearly as close as the score suggests. Now the Rays get an immediate chance to even things up when they host the White Sox Saturday afternoon at 4:10 PM ET in Game 2 of this three-game set. With one more game to follow, neither club can afford to fall into an 0-2 hole they'd need to erase Sunday.
This is a midseason series between two teams much alive in their respective races. Tampa Bay sits at 61-41 through 102 games, scoring 4.4 runs per game while allowing 4.0 — a run differential of plus-46 that reflects a roster built on pitching depth even as injuries pile up. Chicago, at 55-45 through 100 games, has actually outscored opponents by a wider margin (plus-59) despite the middling record, averaging 4.9 runs while surrendering 4.3. The White Sox have won four of their last five, including that emphatic series-opening win over Tampa Bay, while the Rays have gone 3-2 over their last five, with a run of tight, low-scoring outcomes.
The pitching matchup favors neither team dramatically. Drew Rasmussen takes the ball for Tampa Bay carrying a 3.072 ERA, going up against Chicago's Jordan Hicks and his 3.194 mark. Both arms have kept their teams in games all year, and Saturday profiles as a game that could again come down to bullpen management and a handful of key at-bats.
Tampa Bay's lineup is banged up. Cole Sulser, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan and Edwin Uceta are all out among the pitching staff, while Jake Fraley and Gavin Lux are sidelined in the outfield mix, with Jonathan Aranda also unavailable at first base. That's forced manager adjustments up and down the order, but the middle of the lineup still has thump. Chicago is dealing with its own attrition — Kyle Teel, Tanner Murray, Austin Hays and several relievers are out, with Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa also unavailable — but the White Sox have found a way to keep scoring in bunches, as Friday's 6-1 result and last week's 12-3 win over Houston demonstrate.
For fantasy purposes on JockBroker, Junior Caminero stands out as the clearest start for Tampa Bay. His 15.2 projected fantasy points is well above his 14.4 season average, and while his last three games have been wildly inconsistent — a 30.5-point explosion mixed with two scoreless outings — the underlying trend and matchup support riding him again. Yandy Díaz is right there with him at 14.1 projected points, up from a 13.2 season average, with recent output of 7, 13 and 28 points over his last three. Nick Fortes is a sneaky value play behind the plate, projected for 7.7 points against a 6.5 season average, after a quiet stretch that included one 7.5-point game mixed with two zeroes.
On the White Sox side, Chase Meidroth is worth plugging in at 10.9 projected points, above his 10 season average, with recent output of 0, 11 and 12.3 points over his last three games. Colson Montgomery also merits attention even though his 12-point projection sits below his 13 season average — he's coming off a monster 27.5-point game, and that kind of ceiling makes him a justifiable start despite the modest dip in projected output.
As for fades, Taylor Walls projects at just 8.5 points for Tampa Bay and has been held scoreless in three straight games, making him an easy sit against Hicks. Edgar Quero is the clearest fade on the Chicago side — his 5.4 projected points is actually below his already modest 7.2 season average, and his recent output (2, 8.5, 0) hasn't shown enough consistency to trust in a lineup. Randal Grichuk, projected for just 7.2 points, is replacement-level filler at best given a recent stretch of 16, 0 and 0 points.
Given the pitching quality on both sides and Tampa Bay's need to answer Friday's blowout loss, expect a tighter, lower-scoring affair than the series opener. Rasmussen has been steady all year, and the Rays' lineup — even without Fraley, Lux and Aranda — has enough thump in Caminero and Díaz to manufacture a couple of runs against Hicks. Chicago's offense has been dangerous in bursts, but Hicks' ERA suggests he'll keep them in check longer than Friday's starter did to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Rays even the series with a 4-2 win, setting up a rubber match Sunday.
