There's no dramatic backdrop here, no playoff race story to lean on — just a Sunday afternoon finale between two teams heading in opposite directions at the moment, with Toronto trying to close out a series sweep it's dominated from the opening pitch. The Blue Jays and Cardinals wrap up their three-game set at 1:37 PM ET, and while neither club is chasing October right now, this game still matters plenty for the players trying to build value down the stretch and for fantasy managers looking for an edge in Week 1 lineups.
Toronto has won the first two games of this series in lopsided fashion — 3-1 and 5-1 — and enters Game 3 with a chance to sweep a Cardinals team that has simply stopped hitting. St. Louis has dropped four of its last five overall, including that ugly 2-10 blowout against the Cubs sandwiched around this series, and the offense that averages 4.2 runs per game has produced exactly two runs total across the two losses to Toronto. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are riding a stretch where they've won four of their last five, outscoring opponents by a combined margin in wins over St. Louis and Washington before a lone hiccup against Boston.
The bigger picture records tell a complicated story. Toronto sits at 47-58, allowing more runs (4.6) than it scores (3.9), a run differential of minus-64 that suggests this hot streak against St. Louis and Washington is more about opportunity than sudden transformation. St. Louis is 47-51 with a tighter differential at minus-33, scoring 4.2 a night while allowing 4.5. Both clubs are treading water in the standings, which makes series like this one — and the individual performances within them — the real story of the day.
The pitching matchup favors Toronto on paper in a big way. Max Scherzer takes the ball for the Blue Jays, though his 9.486 ERA this season is a number that should give pause to anyone expecting vintage dominance. Matthew Liberatore starts for St. Louis with a 5.26 ERA, better than Scherzer's but still not a shutdown arm. Neither starter profiles as a lockdown option, which could mean this game trends toward more scoring than the first two contests in this series suggested.
Toronto's lineup is dealing with some absences. The Blue Jays are without Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Alejandro Kirk and Jesús Sánchez, all sidelined. St. Louis isn't much healthier, missing Alec Burleson, Iván Herrera and Jordan Walker, while Victor Scott II and Nolan Gorman have been optioned to the minors.
Players to Start:
George Springer remains the headline man in this lineup for JockBroker users. His projected 12.6 fantasy points for this game sits just below his season average of 14.6, but the recent form is what jumps out — a 23.5-point outburst three games ago and 14 points in his most recent outing suggest he's seeing the ball well. At 36, Springer is still the engine of this offense against a Cardinals pitching staff that's been vulnerable.
Guerrero Jr. still carries a strong projection at 11.1 points, matching his season average of 12.8 closely enough to trust, and his last-three trend of 13.5 and 10 points in two of his outings shows the bat is still working. Ernie Clement is also worth a look at 11.1 projected points, actually above his 10.2 season average, with an 11.5-point performance in his last outing signaling positive momentum against a St. Louis staff that's been shaky.
Players to Fade:
On the Cardinals side, Pedro Pagés projects for just 5.8 points, well below his already modest 7.6 season average, and his last three games — 0, 0, and 3 points — paint the picture of a bat that's ice cold right now. Lars Nootbaar is another name to avoid in this spot; his 9.2 projection trails his 10.1 season average, and recent output of 5, 0, and 2 points shows an offense-wide slump that's been the story of this entire series for St. Louis. Andrés Giménez, projected at just 8.2 points for Toronto, is the lowest-upside play among the Blue Jays' regulars and can be treated as a fringe option in lineups built around Springer and Clement.
Prediction:
Given Toronto's dominance in this series and a Cardinals offense that has gone cold at the worst possible time, expect the Blue Jays to complete the sweep. Scherzer's ugly ERA opens the door for some Cardinals runs, but St. Louis simply hasn't shown the offensive life to capitalize against a lineup getting timely production from Springer and Clement. Blue Jays win, 6-3, sending St. Louis out of town having been outscored badly across all three games.
