Arizona takes on San Diego in the finale of this four-game series, with the Diamondbacks looking to close it out in convincing fashion. Game 4 of this four-game set arrives Thursday night with the Diamondbacks (57-52) holding momentum after taking Tuesday's opener 5-1 and riding a five-game winning streak into the finale.
This series is just one chapter in a long regular season, but that doesn't make it any less telling. Arizona has separated itself from San Diego in the standings, and a sweep would put an exclamation point on what's shaping up as a statement week for the Diamondbacks. The Padres (58-53) still hold a slightly better overall record, but the two clubs are trending in opposite directions right now, and Thursday's series finale will offer another data point on which trajectory is real.
The Diamondbacks have been red-hot, reeling off five consecutive wins that include a 12-8 slugfest over Cleveland, a 4-1 win over the same Guardians club, and back-to-back victories over Pittsburgh by scores of 3-0 and 8-7. That kind of offensive versatility — grinding out low-scoring wins and blowing games open — has been the story of Arizona's surge. San Diego, meanwhile, has been far choppier. The Padres dropped Tuesday's series opener 1-5, then split a four-game set with San Francisco, going 3-1 in that stretch before running into Arizona's buzzsaw.
The underlying numbers back up the eye test. Arizona is averaging 4.5 runs a game while allowing 4.5, a modest positive run differential of plus-3 over 109 games. San Diego is averaging 4.2 runs while surrendering 4.3, checking in at minus-9 across 111 games. Neither club is dominant by the numbers, but Arizona's recent form suggests a team playing above its season-long baseline, while San Diego looks like it's playing closer to who it actually is.
On the mound, this is a matchup of two pitchers who have struggled to find consistency. Arizona hands the ball to Kohl Drake, who carries a 4.846 ERA into the start, while San Diego counters with Walker Buehler at 5.176. Neither number inspires much confidence, and with both bullpens likely to be tested early, this has the look of a game that could get away from either starter in a hurry. Arizona's rotation has been decimated by injury — Zac Gallen, Michael Soroka, Corbin Burnes, Blake Walston and Cristian Mena are all out, along with relievers Drey Jameson, A.J. Puk and Andrew Saalfrank — which puts even more pressure on arms like Drake to eat innings and keep the bullpen fresh.
San Diego's pitching staff has its own issues, with Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta and Lucas Giolito all sidelined, along with relievers Jason Adam, David Morgan and Bryan Hoeing. The Padres have been forced to piece things together on the mound, and Buehler's ERA reflects a rotation that hasn't had the depth to cover for its injuries.
Offensively, Arizona will lean on a lineup that's been productive across the board. Corbin Carroll has been streaky of late — a 43-point outburst sandwiched between quieter nights — while Geraldo Perdomo has quietly put together a strong recent stretch, including a 47-point game. Ketel Marte has been steady rather than spectacular, and Nolan Arenado's disruptive 36.5-point game shows the kind of ceiling still in his bat even as the results fluctuate night to night. Max Kepler is questionable with a day-to-day issue, which could affect Arizona's outfield configuration, while Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. remain out.
San Diego will counter with Fernando Tatis Jr., who's been inconsistent — back-to-back zeroes before a 29-point eruption — and Jackson Merrill, who followed a quiet game with a 44.5-point explosion. Manny Machado has been unusually quiet in his last three outings, and the Padres will need more from him if they hope to avoid the sweep. Xander Bogaerts has trended upward, and both Gavin Sheets and Ty France provide some corner infield stability, though Ty France has been the more consistent producer of late.
No fantasy point projections are available for this matchup, so lineup decisions on JockBroker should be shaped by recent form and the injury situation rather than any single number — Arizona's depth advantage on offense and its five-game win streak stand out as the clearest signals heading into Thursday.
Given the way Arizona has been rolling, and the fact that San Diego's rotation troubles show no signs of stabilizing, the Diamondbacks look like the stronger side to finish this series. Expect another high-event game with both bullpens exposed late.
Prediction: Diamondbacks 7, Padres 5.