The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets close out their three-game series Sunday afternoon at 1:35 PM ET, and neither club arrives in a position to feel good about where its season stands. Pittsburgh sits at 57-60 through 117 games, clinging to a modest scoring differential of plus-24 despite averaging exactly five runs a game while surrendering 4.8. New York, meanwhile, is 50-66 through 116 games with a differential of minus-46 — the kind of number that reflects a roster that has been stretched thin by injuries and inconsistency for months. This is Game 3 of the series, closing out a three-game set with regular-season stakes only: neither team is playing for anything beyond pride and positioning as the summer wears on.
The pitching matchup is a classic "who can find his best stuff" scenario. Jared Jones takes the ball for Pittsburgh carrying a 4.018 ERA, while Sean Manaea starts for New York with a 4.331 mark. Neither number screams dominance, which means this game could hinge on which lineup capitalizes on mistakes rather than which starter simply shuts the other side down. If Jones is locating well, the Pirates' shorthanded offense might not need much support. Manaea, for his part, will need to go deep into the game for a Mets rotation that has been gutted by injury, given the state of their bullpen options.
Recent form paints two different pictures heading into Sunday. Pittsburgh has been reeling, dropping four of its last five, including a lopsided 2-10 defeat to Cincinnati and three straight losses to Milwaukee sandwiched around a lone 4-3 win. The Pirates' offense has gone cold at the wrong time, and with key contributors sidelined, manufacturing runs has become a nightly struggle. New York, conversely, enters on a stretch that included three straight wins over Cleveland — highlighted by a 13-6 blowout — before dropping two to Miami by a combined 8-2. That kind of split suggests a Mets team capable of scoring in bunches when its lineup clicks, but also one that can go quiet in a hurry.
Both rosters are dealing with significant absences that shape how each team can approach Sunday. Pittsburgh is without starting pitcher Mitch Keller, center fielder Oneil Cruz, first baseman Ryan O'Hearn and shortstop Konnor Griffin, all sidelined for extended stretches. That's a considerable chunk of both the run-prevention and everyday lineup missing, and it puts more pressure on complementary pieces to produce. New York's injury list is just as daunting — Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Mark Vientos and Luis Robert Jr. are all unavailable, along with pitchers Reed Garrett, Austin Warren, Justin Hagenman and Tylor Megill. Losing that much middle-of-the-order thump and rotation depth explains a lot about why the Mets have struggled to string together sustained success this season.
With so many regulars out, the players who are healthy take on outsized importance. For Pittsburgh, Brandon Lowe has been a steady source of production at second base, averaging 13.5 fantasy points on the season, though his last three games have been erratic — a 27-point outburst followed by a shutout and a modest nine-point showing. Bryan Reynolds and Jake Mangum give the Pirates outfield depth, with Mangum posting an 11-point game sandwiched around a scoreless outing in his last three appearances. Nick Gonzales rounds out a middle infield picture that's had to absorb the loss of Griffin.
On the Mets side, Bo Bichette has been the offensive engine, averaging 12.6 fantasy points with a scorching 29.5-point performance in his most recent outing. Brett Baty has been feast-or-famine at third base, going from a zero to a 25-point game and back to zero across his last three, the kind of volatility that reflects a lineup still searching for consistency without its top-order stars.
No fantasy point projections are available for this matchup, so there's no clean start-or-fade case to make here — but the underlying trends are worth watching for JockBroker users assembling lineups around this game. Pittsburgh's home-field familiarity and Jones's upside give the Pirates a slight edge on paper, but New York's recent scoring surge against Cleveland shows this offense isn't dead even with its stars sidelined.
Expect a game that mirrors the season for both clubs — scrappy, inconsistent, and decided by which bullpen holds up late. I'll take Pittsburgh to close out the series behind a quality start from Jones and just enough offense to get past Manaea and the Mets, 5-3.