The Chicago White Sox have hit a rough patch at exactly the wrong time, and Cincinnati arrives Tuesday night hoping to make it worse. This is Game 1 of a three-game regular-season set, and while neither club is playing for anything more than positioning in what's shaping up to be a long summer, both sides have real reasons to want this one badly.
Chicago sits at 60-56 through 116 games, a mark that still reflects a positive point differential (+35, scoring 4.8 per game against 4.5 allowed) despite a brutal recent stretch. The White Sox have dropped four of their last five, including a 2-14 shellacking and a 0-4 shutout loss to Boston sandwiched around a nail-biting 11-12 defeat to the same Red Sox club. Their lone win in that stretch was a 6-3 decision over Cleveland. That's a offense that's gone cold and a pitching staff that's been shredded, and it's happening while the roster is already thin — Chris Murphy, Ky Bush, Kyle Teel, Joey Bart, Tanner Murray, Drew Thorpe, Brooks Baldwin, Mike Vasil, Jordan Leasure and Prelander Berroa are all sidelined in some form, several for extended stints. That's a staggering number of bodies missing, particularly at catcher and in the bullpen.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 56-60 with a far more troubling underlying number: a -68 run differential, scoring just 4.1 per game while allowing 4.7. The Reds have also lost four of five, dropping consecutive games to Washington by scores of 2-8 and 3-5 before salvaging a series against the Athletics with three straight one-run or two-run wins. That's a team capable of grinding out close games but also one that can get run off the field, and their pitching depth is even more compromised than Chicago's. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Tony Santillan are all unavailable, gutting a rotation and bullpen that were supposed to be strengths. Add in the absences of Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson on the position-player side, and this is a lineup missing several of its most dangerous bats.
The pitching matchup favors Chicago on paper. Sean Burke takes the mound for the White Sox with a 3.078 ERA, a number that stands in sharp contrast to his team's recent form and suggests he's been one of the few consistent things going right in Chicago. Rhett Lowder starts for Cincinnati carrying a 5.258 ERA, and given the state of the Reds' rotation, there's real pressure on him to give his bullpen some length. If Burke can work deep into this game the way his ERA suggests he's capable of, Chicago's shaky bullpen — already down several arms — gets a much-needed break.
Offensively, both clubs have flashes of production surrounded by inconsistency. Chase Meidroth has been up and down for Chicago, with a 64.5-point outburst in his last three games sandwiched around single-digit showings, while Colson Montgomery followed a quiet stretch with a 24.5-point game. Andrew Benintendi has provided steady if modest production, and Brenton Doyle broke out of consecutive scoreless outings with a 16.5-point game last time out. For Cincinnati, Eugenio Suárez has been the one consistent bright spot, stringing together 33.5, 25 and 17-point performances in his last three games — a rare source of stability for a Reds offense otherwise struggling to find rhythm. JJ Bleday similarly erupted for 28.5 points in his most recent outing after two quiet games, while TJ Friedl has gone cold, posting zeroes in three straight. Sal Stewart has shown pop with a 33-point game mixed into his last three, giving Cincinnati some thump in the middle of the order even amid the losing streak.
Historically, these two clubs have met five times this season, with Chicago taking four of those head-to-head matchups, though none of that history carries forward into this series opener.
Given Burke's edge on the mound, the health advantage in the rotation, and a lineup that — while inconsistent — has shown more thump than Cincinnati's in recent outings, Chicago should be positioned to snap its own five-game funk here. The White Sox's bullpen troubles are real, but Cincinnati's are worse, and Lowder's ERA suggests he won't give the Reds the length they need to keep this close late. Look for Chicago's offense to find its footing behind Meidroth and Montgomery, while Suárez keeps Cincinnati within shouting distance before Chicago's pitching depth ultimately wins out.
Prediction: White Sox 6, Reds 4.
