The Houston Astros roll into San Francisco for Game 2 of a three-game series, and Tuesday night gives them a chance to put a real dent in what's shaping up to be a lost summer at Oracle Park. This is a three-game set between two teams heading in opposite directions, and while neither club is playing for anything resembling October positioning at 49-67 and 60-58, respectively, the disparity between these rosters right now is stark enough to make this one worth watching regardless of the standings.
San Francisco has simply been unable to stay healthy or competitive, and the Astros, even with their own share of roster problems, are the more functional team taking the field. The Giants sit at 49-67 through 117 games, averaging 4.1 runs a night while surrendering 4.6 — a run differential of minus-54 that tells the story of a team getting outplayed on both sides of the ball for months. Houston, at 60-58 through 118 games, isn't exactly steamrolling anyone either, averaging 4.6 runs and allowing 4.8, but an 11-game gap in the standings is an 11-game gap, and San Francisco's recent form makes clear why. The Giants have dropped three of their last five, including an 0-8 shutout loss to Detroit and an 0-6 blanking by Texas sandwiched around a pair of wins, a boom-or-bust stretch that has them scoring in bunches or not scoring at all.
Houston's own recent form isn't much cleaner — three losses in their last five, with one-run defeats to San Diego and Toronto mixed in with a couple of wins — but the Astros have shown far more consistency putting runs on the board even in the losses.
The pitching matchup tilts heavily toward Houston. Hayden Wesneski takes the mound for the Astros carrying a 3.857 ERA, a legitimate mid-rotation arm who's given his team a chance most nights out. Carson Whisenhunt starts for San Francisco with a 7.254 ERA, a number that reflects just how difficult this season has been for a Giants pitching staff that's been gutted by injury. San Francisco is already without starters Trevor McDonald and Hayden Birdsong, and the bullpen has lost key relievers Matt Gage, Joel Peguero and Randy Rodríguez for extended stretches, leaving Whisenhunt and whoever follows him with almost no margin for error against a Houston lineup that can make even the smallest mistake costly.
That lineup is the other reason to lean Astros here. Yordan Alvarez anchors the middle of the order at DH, and Christian Walker has been on an absolute heater lately, posting 14.5, 18 and 19.5 fantasy points in his last three outings — a stretch that suggests he's seeing the ball well right now. Isaac Paredes has been productive at third, and Cam Smith, still just 23 and out of Florida State, dropped a monster 57-point performance in his last three games even with two quiet outings mixed in — the kind of ceiling that makes him a name to watch. Jeremy Peña and Daulton Varsho have been streaky, but with Jose Altuve and Yainer Diaz both out for Houston, the Astros need contributions up and down the order, and Walker and Alvarez have been answering that call.
San Francisco's offense has its own bright spots even amid the losing. Rafael Devers followed up a scoreless game with a 28.5-point explosion two outings ago, showing the kind of power that can carry a lineup on any given night, and Willy Adames had a similar 24-point spike sandwiched between quieter performances. Jung Hoo Lee has flashed the same up-and-down pattern. The problem for the Giants is depth — with Marcelo Mayer, Harrison Bader, Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez and Victor Bericoto all sidelined, along with Matt Chapman still out, San Francisco is trotting out a lineup missing several everyday pieces, and Wilmer Flores' recent stretch of 0, 8 and 0 fantasy points is a fair snapshot of how thin things have gotten around Devers and Adames.
San Francisco has actually won all three head-to-head meetings between these two teams earlier this season, a wrinkle that cuts against the on-paper case for Houston tonight. Still, Wesneski's steadiness on the mound against a Giants lineup missing several regulars, paired with Whisenhunt's struggles and a depleted San Francisco bullpen, gives Houston a real edge heading into Tuesday night at Oracle Park.
Prediction: Astros 7, Giants 3.
Christian Walker and Rafael Devers are two players trending in different directions heading into Tuesday, and both figure to be worth watching as this series continues.
