Fried, Gilbert Set to Close Out Bronx Series Between Yankees and Mariners
The Yankees and Mariners wrap up their three-game set at Yankee Stadium on Thursday afternoon. Neither club is playing for anything beyond positioning in the standings, but this series finale still carries weight for a New York team looking to keep winning at home and a Seattle club searching for any sign of life on the road.
This is Game 3 of the series, and it's arrived at a strange juncture — Tuesday's opener ended scoreless, and Wednesday's result wasn't recorded, leaving Thursday to be decided fresh with no clear carryover momentum to lean on. Both teams will simply have to solve it on the field.
The Yankees enter at 65-52 through 118 games, scoring 4.4 runs per game while allowing 3.8, a run differential of plus-75 that speaks to a roster capable of grinding out wins even while banged up. And banged up they are. New York is without Aaron Judge (D60) and Cody Bellinger (D10) in the outfield, DH Giancarlo Stanton (D10), and starters Carlos RodĂłn (D15) and Clarke Schmidt (D60). That's a significant chunk of the middle of the order and rotation sitting on the shelf, yet the Yankees have still gone 3-2 in their last five, including two wins over Atlanta sandwiched around a loss, then a split with St. Louis. Resilience has been the theme.
Seattle, at 56-63 through 119 games, is scuffling. The Mariners are being outscored on the season, 3.9 runs per game scored against 4.0 allowed, a differential of minus-19, and their recent form is ugly — four losses in their last five, capped by an 11-0 blowout loss to Detroit before salvaging a win in the finale. Adding to Seattle's issues, they're missing catcher Cal Raleigh (D10) and shortstop J.P. Crawford (D10), both key everyday pieces, along with a string of pitching injuries including Logan Evans (D60), Carlos Vargas (D60) and Matt Brash (D15). That's a Mariners bullpen and lineup already stretched thin heading into a tough spot against a Yankees team playing at home.
The pitching matchup favors New York on paper. Max Fried takes the ball for the Yankees carrying a 2.877 ERA, the kind of number that keeps a lineup in games even when the offense goes quiet. Fried has been the stabilizing force in a rotation missing two key arms, and against a Seattle offense that's struggled to generate consistent traffic, his command profile sets up well. Logan Gilbert counters for the Mariners with a 3.423 ERA — solid, capable of length, but Gilbert will need to be sharp given how little support his lineup has provided lately.
Offensively, the Yankees will lean on Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt to pick up slack left by the absences of Judge, Bellinger and Stanton. Rice's last three games have been streaky — 0, 24, then 7 fantasy points — while Chisholm has bounced between quiet and productive nights. Goldschmidt, at 38, remains a steady veteran presence even if his recent output (7.5, 0, 8) shows the up-and-down nature of this lineup right now. Heliot Ramos, too, has been inconsistent, going scoreless in back-to-back games before a 16.5-point outburst.
Seattle's answer starts with Julio RodrĂguez, who's coming off a monster 38-point performance after modest showings in his prior two games — the kind of ceiling that keeps the Mariners dangerous even in a down stretch. Josh Naylor has been similarly volatile, with a 66-point night buried between an 8 and a 2.5. If Seattle is going to make noise in this one, it'll likely come through RodrĂguez and Naylor finding another gear, since the supporting cast — Taylor Ward, Dominic Canzone, Cole Young — has been hit-or-miss at best.
There are no fantasy projections available for this matchup, so this preview leans on what's tangible: recent form, health, and the arms on the mound. And on that front, the Yankees have the edge in nearly every column. They're healthier at the top of the rotation than Seattle is up and down its pitching staff, they've been the better team by record and run differential, and they're at home with a pitcher who's given them a chance to win nearly every time out.
Seattle's path to stealing this one runs through Gilbert matching Fried pitch for pitch and hoping RodrĂguez and Naylor spike again. It's not impossible, but it's asking a lot of a team that's lost four of five.
Prediction: Yankees to close out the series finale behind a strong outing from Fried.
