The Cubs have spent the summer building a 70-51 record on the strength of a run differential that towers over most of the National League — plus-107 through 122 games, the product of averaging 5.2 runs a night while surrendering just 4.3. That kind of margin doesn't happen by accident, and it sets up Sunday's series finale against St. Louis as a chance for Chicago to close out the series and keep pace in what's shaping up to be a productive stretch of the regular season.
This is Game 3 of a three-game set between the Cubs and Cardinals, with results from the first two games of the series not available. Sunday's series finale still carries weight as the decisive final game of the set, giving Chicago a chance to close things out on their home turf.
On the mound, it's Shota Imanaga for the Cubs against Hunter Dobbins for the Cardinals, a matchup of two pitchers sitting in similar statistical territory. Imanaga carries a 3.735 ERA into the start, while Dobbins comes in at 3.4 — both numbers suggesting this could be a tighter, lower-scoring affair than either team's recent scoring binges would indicate. Given the Cubs' offense has shown it can erupt for double-digit run totals when it gets going, and the Cardinals have had their own explosive nights, a well-pitched game from either starter early could set the tone for how much run support each lineup actually needs.
The Cubs enter having found some rhythm, if unevenly. Their last five games tell a boom-or-bust story: a 0-7 shutout loss to Washington was immediately followed by a 12-6 blowout win, then an 8-6 win, a 10-2 win over Kansas City, and a 3-6 loss to close out that set. It's a lineup capable of scoring in bunches, but it's also shown it can go cold in a hurry. St. Louis, at 61-60 with a nearly even run differential of minus-1, has been the definition of a .500 club, but they've actually won more than they've lost across their last five, taking three of five against Philadelphia and Colorado, including a 7-1 win and a 2-0 shutout of the Phillies sandwiched around a narrow one-run loss.
Injuries loom large for both sides. The Cubs are without a significant chunk of their bullpen depth — Shelby Miller, Ben Brown, Porter Hodge and Phil Maton are all out, along with starter Justin Steele and starter Edward Cabrera, both on extended absences. Add in Tyler Austin at first base and outfielder Matt Shaw sidelined, and Chicago's margin for error on the mound gets thinner, particularly if the game turns into a bullpen battle in the middle innings. St. Louis, meanwhile, is dealing with its own absences in starter Max Rajcic and infielder Ramón Urías, both out longer-term, while Alec Burleson and Iván Herrera are unavailable as well, and the Cardinals have also seen Victor Scott II and Nolan Gorman optioned to the minors — thinning an already inconsistent lineup.
For fantasy purposes on JockBroker, the story here is less about who's projected to produce and more about recent form and opportunity. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been streaky, following a scoreless outing with back-to-back double-digit fantasy days, while Seiya Suzuki has been red-hot of late, posting 26.5 and 38 fantasy points in his last two appearances after an 0-point dud. Dansby Swanson's 48-point outburst two games ago stands out amid an otherwise modest season average, and Nico Hoerner has quietly strung together two strong games in a row after an early-week whiff. On the Cardinals' side, Jordan Walker has trended positively, following a 26-point performance with a 14.5-point outing before a quieter game most recently, and JJ Wetherholt opened his last three with a 25-point explosion before cooling off. With Burleson and Herrera out of the lineup, St. Louis will need more from Walker, Winn and Wetherholt to generate offense against a Cubs pitching staff that, shorthanded bullpen aside, has been stingy overall.
Head-to-head this season, the Cubs have controlled the series against St. Louis, taking four of five meetings, including a 10-2 rout back in late July. That trend, combined with home-field advantage and a pitching matchup that favors neither team dramatically on paper, points toward Chicago winning the series finale. Imanaga's command should hold up well enough to keep St. Louis's inconsistent lineup in check, while Suzuki and Swanson's hot bats give the Cubs enough thump to push across the runs they need.
Look for the Cubs to grind out a close one and take the series finale, reinforcing why their run differential ranks among the best in baseball this season.
