Chicago rolls into Arizona carrying the better record and the far superior run differential, and Monday night's series opener against the Diamondbacks looks like a chance for the Cubs to keep pulling away, even if it's just Game 1 of a three-game set in late August.
The Diamondbacks enter at 68-61, still hanging around at a plus-13 run differential, but their recent form is a warning sign — a 9-0 blowout of Cincinnati got things going, and Arizona followed that with a 7-6 win over Boston, but then dropped two straight to the Red Sox by a combined 20-5 before falling 3-5 to Atlanta. The offense has been feast-or-famine, and with a beat-up pitching staff, there isn't much margin for the famine nights.
Chicago, at 72-55, has the look of a legitimate contender with a run differential of plus-97 — nearly eight times Arizona's mark — but the Cubs themselves come in cold, having dropped three of their last five, including a lopsided 4-11 loss to St. Louis their last time out. A three-game sample against the White Sox produced a loss, a tie, and a win, hardly a ringing endorsement of late-summer sharpness. Still, the underlying numbers say this is a deeper, more complete team than the one they'll face in the desert.
The pitching matchup favors Arizona on paper only if you squint. Merrill Kelly takes the ball for the Diamondbacks carrying a 5.372 ERA, numbers that reflect a rotation decimated by injury — Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Ryne Nelson, Blake Walston and Cristian Mena are all out, most on 60-day assignments, which has forced Arizona into survival mode on the mound all season. Kelly will need to be better than his season-long numbers suggest against a Cubs lineup that scores at a 5.1 runs-per-game clip.
Kevin Gausman gets the ball for Chicago, and while his 4.584 ERA isn't dominant, it's a clear step up from what Arizona will throw out there. The bigger story for the Cubs' pitching staff is depth — Justin Steele, Shelby Miller, Ben Brown, Porter Hodge and Phil Maton are all shelved for extended periods, so Gausman taking the mound healthy matters more than usual for a Chicago team trying to manage its arms down the stretch.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks will lean on Corbin Carroll, who's averaging 15.5 fantasy points a game and just put up a 31-point showing his last time out, giving him one of the more dynamic recent trend lines on this roster. Geraldo Perdomo has similarly flashed with a 28-point game in his last three, and catcher Gabriel Moreno has been arguably the hottest bat in the lineup, posting 21.5, 19, and 42 fantasy points across his last three outings. But Arizona will be doing this without Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., both sidelined, which strips real thump from the middle of the order. Max Kepler is questionable as well, listed day-to-day, adding more uncertainty to an already thin group.
Chicago's lineup has its own absences to account for — Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are both out — but the Cubs still bring real firepower. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the way at 15.6 fantasy points per game and has shown explosive upside with 26 and 24.5-point performances mixed into his last three. Michael Busch has been streaky but capable of huge nights, including a 27.5-point outburst, while Ian Happ's 32.5-point game shows the kind of ceiling this lineup carries even on a night when Seiya Suzuki has gone quiet, managing just 3.5, 5.5 and 0 fantasy points in his last three trips.
Head-to-head, Chicago has dominated the season series, winning four of five meetings, including three straight by comfortable-to-lopsided margins in early May. Arizona's lone win came by a single run back in April. That history, combined with the current form and the pitching disparity, points toward more of the same.
There are no fantasy point projections available for this matchup. Arizona's bats have shown flashes — Carroll, Perdomo and Moreno all have real recent momentum — but the absences of Marte and Gurriel Jr., paired with a rotation running on fumes, add uncertainty for the home team. Chicago's offense has shown more depth even in a mini-slump, and Gausman's ERA compares favorably to Kelly's heading into the opener.
Expect the Cubs' superior overall quality to show up early, with Arizona's shorthanded pitching staff struggling to contain a lineup that's shown it can erupt in bunches. Look for Chicago to take the opener and put itself in position to control the series.
Prediction: Cubs 7, Diamondbacks 4.
