There is little at stake beyond pride and roster evaluation when the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants open a three-game set on Monday night, but that doesn't mean this game lacks intrigue. Both clubs are comfortably out of postseason position in late August, playing out the string in a lost season, and the pitching matchup alone makes Game 1 of this series worth tuning into.
Carson Whisenhunt takes the ball for the home Giants carrying an ERA of 7.031, a number that tells the story of San Francisco's brutal second half. Across town — or across the diamond, rather — Chase Burns will trot out for Cincinnati with an ERA of 2.515, one of the more stark strikeout-versus-suspect matchups you'll find on the mid-August slate. If ever there was a night for Reds hitters to feel good about their chances before first pitch, and a night for Giants hitters to feel like they need to manufacture runs early, this is it.
The records tell you everything about where these franchises stand. San Francisco is 52-75, averaging 4.0 runs a game while surrendering 4.6, a run differential of -71 that reflects a club that has been outplayed on both sides of the ball for months. Cincinnati sits at 61-68, scoring 4.1 a night and allowing 4.8, an even worse differential at -98 despite the better overall record. Neither team is playing inspired baseball right now. The Giants have dropped four of their last five, including a 7-13 blowout loss to Colorado and an ugly 1-8 defeat to Cleveland sandwiched around a lone 1-0 win. Cincinnati has been just as uneven, alternating losses and wins against St. Louis and getting shut out 0-9 by Arizona in their most recent outing before salvaging a couple of one-run victories.
This is Game 1 of a three-game regular-season series, and for both clubs it's as much about individual performance evaluation as it is about the scoreboard. Injuries have gutted each roster in ways that shape Monday's lineups. San Francisco is without Matt Chapman, Harrison Bader and Casey Schmitt, all sidelined, while its rotation depth has been hit hard with Trevor McDonald and Hayden Birdsong both out long-term. Add Marcelo Mayer, Keaton Winn, Matt Gage, Joel Peguero, Jesus Rodriguez and Daniel Susac to the injury report and it's clear why the Giants have struggled to find any rhythm. Cincinnati isn't much healthier — Hunter Greene and Brandon Williamson are both out of the rotation for the extended future, and the middle of Cincinnati's order will be without Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson, all shelved. Tony Santillan, Blake Dunn and Graham Ashcraft round out a lengthy list for the Reds' pitching staff.
Given those absences, the offensive burden shifts to the players still standing. For San Francisco, Rafael Devers has been the most productive bat of late, posting a season average of 13.4 fantasy points and coming off a stretch that included a 27.5-point showing. Willy Adames has been streaky — a zero-point game followed by a 24.5-point outburst — while Jung Hoo Lee has trended upward across his last three outings. Wilmer Flores and Bryce Eldridge round out the group but have been inconsistent, each posting a zero in one of their last three games.
Cincinnati counters with Eugenio Suárez, who carries a 12.6 season average and has been a steady if unspectacular presence, and Sal Stewart, whose 13.7 average and a 34.5-point explosion in his most recent games make him the hottest hitter in this lineup right now. JJ Bleday has been boom-or-bust, with a 17.5-point game surrounded by two scoreless outings, while TJ Friedl has cooled considerably after an 8-point game was followed by consecutive zeroes.
No fantasy point projections are available for this matchup, so there's no clean start-or-fade case to make here — but the recent form and injury situation paint a clear picture. Cincinnati enters with far more swagger, at least on the mound. Burns has been one of the more effective arms in this game regardless of record, and against a Giants lineup that's scuffled all month, he profiles as the biggest advantage either team holds heading into Monday night.
San Francisco's saving grace could be Devers, who's shown enough recent thump to keep his team in ballgames even against good pitching, and Whisenhunt will need a bounce-back performance badly against a Reds team that has shown it can be had — Cincinnati was shut out just days ago. But asking a struggling starter to slow down a red-hot Burns while missing multiple key contributors is a tall task heading into Game 1 of this series.
