The Chicago Cubs roll into the desert Wednesday afternoon carrying the better record and a lineup that's been must-watch television, but this Game 3 finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks is shaping up as anything but a formality. With Wednesday's first pitch set for 3:40 p.m. ET, Arizona gets a chance to close out the three-game set on its own turf, leaning on the best arm either roster can offer to do it.
This is Week 1 of the regular season slate in a long summer stretch — not a postseason atmosphere, but every series matters when you're jockeying for playoff position in late August. Arizona sits at 69-62 through 131 games, averaging 4.6 runs a night while allowing 4.5, a modest plus-9 run differential that speaks to a team scrapping for consistency. Chicago, at 73-56, has been a different animal offensively, scoring 5.2 a game against 4.3 allowed for a strong plus-113 run differential — the kind of number that signals a club capable of blowing games open, for better or worse depending on which side of the ledger you're on.
That duality showed up in vivid color over the Cubs' last five games. Chicago throttled Seattle 19-2 in one outing, then dropped back-to-back one-run decisions to the Mariners before a scoreless shutout loss to the White Sox and a 3-3 tie. It's been feast or famine. Arizona's own recent form has been similarly streaky — a 5-3 win over Cincinnati, an 11-5 loss in the same series, a 9-0 blowout, a 7-6 win over Boston, then a 9-4 defeat. Neither team is walking into Wednesday on a hot streak so much as a hot-and-cold one.
The pitching matchup, though, tilts sharply in Arizona's favor on paper. Eduardo Rodriguez takes the ball for the Diamondbacks sporting a 2.613 ERA, arguably the most stabilizing presence in a rotation that's been gutted by injury. Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Ryne Nelson, Blake Walston and Cristian Mena are all out for extended stretches, and Michael Soroka is dealing with his own IL stint — meaning Rodriguez isn't just Arizona's best option Wednesday, he's close to the last man standing. The Diamondbacks' bullpen has taken hits too, with A.J. Puk and Andrew Saalfrank both sidelined long-term.
Chicago counters with Matthew Boyd, whose 4.154 ERA is respectable but leaves plenty of daylight against Rodriguez's number. The Cubs have their own pitching concerns to track, with several relievers — Shelby Miller, Ben Brown, Porter Hodge, Phil Maton — out long-term.
Lineup-wise, both clubs will be without key pieces. Arizona is missing Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., while Chicago will play this one without Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman. That thins out the middle of both order sheets, putting extra weight on the names still standing. For Arizona, that means leaning on Corbin Carroll, who's been erratic but explosive — a 29-point game sandwiched around a quiet 10-point outing and a 31-point eruption in his last three. Nolan Arenado has shown similar spikiness, with a 35.5-point night mixed into an otherwise pedestrian stretch. Gabriel Moreno and Lars Nootbaar give Arizona additional thump, with Nootbaar trending up after a 28.5-point performance in his last outing. Max Kepler is questionable and worth tracking pregame.
Chicago's answer starts with Pete Crow-Armstrong, who torched Seattle for 54 points in one of his last three outings and remains the engine of this offense at a 15.7 season average. Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Ian Happ have all flashed big spike weeks recently — Happ's 55.5-point outburst stands out — while Nico Hoerner and Carson Kelly round out a lineup that's capable of putting up crooked numbers in a hurry, as the 19-run showing against Seattle proved.
Head-to-head this season, Chicago has dominated the series, winning four of five meetings, including an 8-4 win and a 2-0 shutout. Arizona's lone win came in a tight 3-2 decision back in April. That history favors the Cubs, but Rodriguez gives the Diamondbacks their best equalizer of the year.
Expect a tighter, lower-scoring affair than either team's recent averages suggest, with Rodriguez limiting the damage against a lineup that can turn a game in one inning. Arizona's offense will need to manufacture runs against Boyd rather than rely on the long ball, and Rodriguez gives the Diamondbacks their best shot at closing out the finale on their own terms.
