There's no dressing this one up as anything other than what it is: two teams playing out the string in early September, both well shy of contention, meeting for the finale of a three-game set. Pittsburgh and San Francisco wrap up their series Thursday afternoon with first pitch set for 12:35 PM ET, and while neither club is chasing October, that doesn't mean the game lacks intrigue — particularly for anyone building lineups around the individual performances on display.
This is Game 3 of 3 in the current series. The first two matchups have been low-scoring, tightly contested affairs — Tuesday's game finished 0-0, and Wednesday's result wasn't reported in full, but the pattern suggests pitching has had the upper hand all series. That trend sets up an interesting contrast for the finale, with Jared Jones taking the ball for Pittsburgh against Blade Tidwell for San Francisco.
Jones enters with a 4.83 ERA, Tidwell right behind him at 4.54. Neither number screams dominance, and given how the first two games of this series played out, there's a case that both offenses have simply been cold rather than facing elite arms. Whether that changes Thursday is the swing factor in a game with real fantasy implications for hitters trying to snap out of quiet stretches.
The Pirates sit at 67-71 through 138 games, averaging 4.8 runs per game while allowing 4.7 — a modest positive run differential of plus-26 that reflects a team hovering below .500 but competitive on most nights. San Francisco's numbers tell a rougher story: 57-80 through 138 games, scoring 4.1 per game against 4.6 allowed, a differential of minus-63 that highlights just how far off the pace the Giants have fallen this season.
Recent form actually favors Pittsburgh in the moment. The Pirates have won three of their last five, including back-to-back wins over St. Louis by scores of 5-4 and 6-2, before dropping the finale of that series 1-4. They then split a two-game stretch against San Diego, losing 0-3 before grinding out a 1-0 win. San Francisco's last five have been more up-and-down — wins of 7-3 over Atlanta and 7-2 over Arizona, sandwiched around ugly losses of 1-7 and 6-10 to the Diamondbacks, before closing with a 6-1 win. The Giants have shown they can score in bursts, but the inconsistency has been glaring.
Injuries complicate both rosters. Pittsburgh will again be without Mitch Keller, Endy Rodríguez, Ryan O'Hearn and Konnor Griffin, all sidelined, with Keller and Griffin out long-term. Oneil Cruz, Marcell Ozuna and Spencer Horwitz are also unavailable, thinning out a Pirates lineup that's already scuffling to find run support with several regulars out of the picture. San Francisco's absentee list is even longer — Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt and Harrison Bader are all out, along with a run of relief arms in Brubaker, Winn, Gage and Peguero, plus starter Adrian Houser. That's a significant chunk of San Francisco's roster missing, and it puts even more weight on the players who are healthy.
That's where the fantasy angle sharpens. Rafael Devers has been the best hitter in either lineup over his last three outings — 34, 16.5, and 16 fantasy points — a stretch that vastly outpaces his season average of 13.6 and signals he's seeing the ball well right now. Bryce Eldridge has flashed similarly loud upside, with a 33.5-point game mixed into his last three, even if it came with volatility on either side. For Pittsburgh, Brandon Lowe has been the name to watch, opening with 19.5 points before exploding for 34.5 in his next outing and then going scoreless most recently — the kind of boom-or-bust profile that makes him worth watching this week. Bryan Reynolds and Nick Gonzales round out Pittsburgh's most relevant fantasy names, though both have been inconsistent of late, and Jung Hoo Lee has quietly strung together a stable three-game run for San Francisco without the same swings.
There's no projection data available for this one, so there's no start-or-sit case to make here — just the recent-form signals and the injury situation shaping who's worth tracking. Given the series has trended defensive and both bullpens are shorthanded to different degrees, expect another tight, low-scoring affair rather than a slugfest.
Pittsburgh's edge in recent form gives the Pirates a slight nod at home. Devers and the Giants' top bats will make it competitive, but Pittsburgh's pitching has held up better across the sample size that matters most here.
Prediction: Pirates 4, Giants 3.
