Burns and the Brewers Look to Close Out the Series Finale Against the Reds
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday afternoon in the finale of a three-game series, with first pitch set for 2:10 PM ET.
Milwaukee sits at 91-56 through 147 games, a run differential of plus-172 that reflects one of the more complete rosters in baseball this year — averaging 5.0 runs a game while allowing just 3.9. Cincinnati, by contrast, is 69-77 with a minus-122 differential, scoring 4.2 runs a night but bleeding 5.0 against. Those aren't small gaps.
Milwaukee has won three straight over the Cubs by scores of 8-6, 4-3 and 4-3, but comes into Sunday having dropped its last two games, losing 8-12 and 3-5 to Cincinnati. The Reds' recent form otherwise has been rough — they were swept by the Dodgers in ugly fashion, including a 1-14 loss, before beating the Brewers twice.
The pitching matchup favors Milwaukee on paper. Shane Drohan takes the ball for the Brewers with a 4.093 ERA, a serviceable but unspectacular number. Across from him is Chase Burns, whose 2.73 ERA is the best number either team will run out all weekend. If the Reds are going to salvage this series finale, Burns is their best chance to do it, and Cincinnati's lineup — without Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson, all out with D10 injuries — will need to make the most of a favorable pitching matchup.
Milwaukee's lineup issues are less about talent and more about health. Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick and Andrew Vaughn are all sidelined, leaving a supporting cast that has answered the call all year. Brice Turang, William Contreras and Christian Yelich remain the engine of this offense, though the recent scoring lines tell a story of inconsistency — Contreras posted 46 points in one recent game before going quiet, and Yelich's 33.5-point outburst was followed by modest returns. Jake Bauers has been similarly streaky, with a 42.5-point performance sandwiched between two near-nothing nights. Joey Ortiz has settled into a steady if unspectacular complementary role at shortstop.
For Cincinnati, the offense runs through Eugenio Suárez, who's shown flashes with a 24-point game mixed into his recent stretch, and Sal Stewart, who leads the group with a 13.9 season average despite a quiet last three games. JJ Bleday and TJ Friedl have been ice cold, combining for next to nothing across their last three outings each, which highlights just how much Cincinnati's offense has struggled to generate consistent production up and down the lineup. The Reds' pitching staff is also without Hunter Greene for the year, a loss that's been felt all season long.
The bullpen picture matters too. Milwaukee is dealing with a mountain of relief-corps injuries — Grant Anderson, Rob Zastryzny, Angel Zerpa and Brian Fitzpatrick are all out, along with rotation piece Quinn Priester and veteran Brandon Woodruff, both on the 60-day list. That's a significant depletion, and it puts more pressure on Drohan to give length on Sunday so Milwaukee doesn't have to lean on a taxed relief group.
Still, the talent gap here is real, and Burns' quality-start ceiling only goes so far against a Brewers lineup with this much thump when healthy. Expect Milwaukee's offense to wear down Cincinnati's bullpen in the middle innings even if Burns keeps it competitive early. The Brewers look to close out the series finale on Sunday.
Prediction: Brewers 6, Reds 3.
