There's no shortage of stakes when a team is fighting for playoff positioning in mid-September, and Sunday afternoon in the desert gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a chance to do exactly that. The Diamondbacks host the Texas Rangers in the rubber match of a three-game set, with Arizona sitting at 78-69 and looking to build on a stretch that's seen them win four of their last five. This is Game 3 of the series, and with the first two meetings unresolved on the scoreboard entering Sunday, the finale carries real weight for a Diamondbacks club trying to keep pace down the stretch.
Texas comes in at 72-75, a team that's had its moments this year but has been on the wrong side of inconsistent stretches too often to close the gap. The Rangers' minus-41 run differential tells a story of a club that hasn't been able to put complete games together, even as their raw scoring average of 4.1 runs per game isn't drastically behind Arizona's 4.4. This is a team searching for answers in September, not making a push toward anything meaningful, and Sunday's series finale feels like an opportunity for the Diamondbacks to assert themselves against a fading opponent.
The pitching matchup favors the home team on paper. Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Arizona with a sparkling 2.549 ERA, giving the Diamondbacks a legitimate ace-level look at the top of the rotation for this finale. Cal Quantrill counters for Texas with a 2.893 ERA of his own — respectable, but a notch below what Rodriguez has provided all year. Whoever gets length from their bullpen matters here too, given how thin both rosters have gotten by this point in the season. Arizona is without A.J. Puk, Andrew Saalfrank, Cristian Mena, Ryne Nelson and Ryan Thompson, gutting their pitching depth beyond the rotation. Texas has been similarly hit, with Jack Leiter, Jose Corniell and Carter Baumler all out, plus Nathan Eovaldi, Cole Winn, Jalen Beeks and Peyton Gray battling their own absences. Both bullpens will be running thin by the middle innings, which could turn this into a game decided by whichever offense gets to the other side's relief corps first.
Arizona will be without Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., while Max Kepler is off the roster entirely. That leaves Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Nolan Arenado and Gabriel Moreno to carry the offensive weight. Carroll, 26, remains a dynamic presence in Arizona's order, while Arenado, at 35, has been characteristically streaky of late — a 34-point fantasy outing sandwiched around quieter nights — but he remains the steadiest bat in that lineup when he's going. Perdomo has trended upward across his last three games, and Moreno's power flashed in his most recent outing after going quiet the game before.
Texas will be without Corey Seager, Josh Jung and Evan Carter, a trio that would otherwise anchor the middle of their order. That leaves Wyatt Langford, Jake Burger and Brandon Nimmo to do the heavy lifting. Langford has been wildly inconsistent across his last three showings, topping out with a monster performance before that his previous two were quiet, and Burger has shown similar boom-or-bust tendencies. Nimmo, meanwhile, has struggled to find any offensive rhythm in his last three outings. This is a lineup missing too many key pieces to feel confident going up against a pitcher with Rodriguez's numbers this season.
History between these two clubs this year has tilted toward Arizona lately. After Texas won a pair of close games back in May, the Diamondbacks have taken the two most recent meetings between these teams, including a shutout win. That recent trend, combined with Arizona's home-field advantage and superior starting pitching matchup, points toward the Diamondbacks taking the series finale and the series itself.
Arizona's recent form — winning four of five — suggests a team rounding into form at the right time of year, while Texas has dropped three of its last five and continues to be undermined by a run differential that ranks among the worst marks discussed here. The absences on both sides even things out somewhat, but Rodriguez's ERA advantage over Quantrill is the deciding factor in this preview.
Expect the Diamondbacks bullpen limitations to be tested if Rodriguez can't go deep, but with him on the mound, Arizona should be able to control this game from the jump. Look for the Diamondbacks to close out the series with a solid all-around effort at the plate, taking advantage of a Texas offense missing too many key contributors to keep pace.
Prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Rangers 3.
