The Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals wrap up their three-game set on Thursday night, and while neither club is playing for October positioning at this point in September, Game 3 of this series carries its own weight as both teams try to salvage momentum heading into the season's final stretch. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM EDT, with the Astros looking to close out the series on their home field in the finale of this three-game set.
Houston sits at 75-75 through 150 games, allowing 4.8 runs per game against 4.5 scored, a run differential of -53 that reflects a club treading water rather than surging. Kansas City has had a rougher go of it, sitting at 66-84 with a -94 run differential, the byproduct of a offense and pitching staff that have both leaked runs at an unsustainable clip. Neither team is chasing a playoff spot at this stage, but professional pride and roster evaluation matter plenty in mid-September, and both dugouts will be treating this finale like a game worth winning.
The recent form tells two different stories heading into Thursday. The Astros have been reeling, dropping four of their last five, including a brutal 4-14 blowout loss to Tampa Bay and two more one-possession-type losses in that same series before salvaging a 2-1 win over Philadelphia sandwiched around a 7-11 defeat. It's been an inconsistent stretch offensively and on the mound. Kansas City hasn't fared much better, losing four of five with lopsided defeats to Boston (1-4, 1-5) before snapping that skid with a win, then splitting a two-game set with Arizona. Both clubs arrive banged up and looking for answers, which sets up a series finale that could go either direction.
This is Game 3 of 3 in the season series between these clubs, and Houston has controlled the head-to-head matchup this year, winning four of five meetings dating back to May. That history won't dictate Thursday's outcome, but it speaks to a Houston club that has generally had the Royals' number even during stretches when its own form has wobbled.
On the mound, Kansas City turns to Seth Lugo, who carries a 4.994 ERA into the start. Houston's starter is still to be determined, leaving one half of this pitching matchup a mystery until closer to first pitch. Both bullpens have been stretched thin by injuries — Houston is without relievers Brandon Walter and Steven Okert, along with starter Mike Burrows and shortstop Carlos Correa, all long-term absences that have forced manager decisions all season. Kansas City's injury list is even longer, with starters Stephen Kolek, Tony Gonsolin, Cole Ragans and Luinder Avila all sidelined, along with relievers James McArthur, Carlos Estévez, Beck Way, Nick Mears and Connor Seabold, plus second baseman Jonathan India. It's been a war of attrition for the Royals' pitching staff in particular, and that depth issue shows up in the run-prevention numbers.
Both lineups will also be missing key names Thursday. Houston will play without center fielder Daulton Varsho and catcher Yainer Diaz, while Kansas City will be without shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, third baseman Maikel Garcia and second baseman Michael Massey — a significant chunk of the Royals' everyday infield sidelined heading into this finale.
What Houston does have going for it is thump in the middle of the order. Isaac Paredes has been red-hot lately, posting 33.5 and 25.5 fantasy points in two of his last three outings, and Yordan Alvarez, at designated hitter, flashed his ceiling with an 18.5-point performance his last time out after a quieter stretch. Jose Altuve has shown flashes too, with a 14-point game mixed into his last three. On the Kansas City side, catcher Carter Jensen has been the story of late, stringing together 8, 25, and 26 fantasy-point games in his last three outings, while Isaac Collins chipped in a strong 22.8-point performance in his most recent game after a couple of quiet ones. Salvador Perez, at 36, remains a threat in the middle of the Royals' order despite an uneven recent stretch.
There are no fantasy point projections available for this matchup, so lineup decisions on JockBroker should lean on this form data, the injury situations on both sides, and the pitching matchup once Houston names its starter.
Given Houston's recent dominance in this season series, the presence of Alvarez and Paredes trending upward, and a Kansas City lineup missing multiple everyday starters, the Astros should be able to close this series out at home. Expect a competitive, low-scoring finish that ultimately breaks Houston's way.
