The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will play Game 3 of their four-game series on Saturday afternoon at 4:10 PM ET, and the two clubs are moving in starkly different directions as September rolls on. Philadelphia has stacked up an 84-68 record with a plus-31 run differential, while New York sits at 69-83 with a differential of minus-43, a gap that has been on full display through the first two games of this set.
This is Week 1 of the schedule by phase designation, but — both teams have played 152 games this season, and the sample sizes are large enough to trust. The Mets have lost four of their last five, including three straight to Baltimore by a combined score of 6-16 before dropping the finale of that set 0-2 to the Yankees. Their lone bright spot in that stretch was a 12-2 blowout win over New York's crosstown rival, a reminder that this roster still has some thump in it even in a lost season. The Phillies, meanwhile, have been streaky rather than bad, alternating wins and losses across their last five — a 3-0 shutout of Washington, a 3-6 loss to the Nationals, a 9-4 win over Atlanta, then a pair of losses to the Braves by a combined 8-18. Neither team is arriving at Citi Field on a hot streak, but Philadelphia's floor is clearly higher.
The first two games of this series have been low-scoring, tightly played affairs — Thursday ended 0-0 and Friday's result wasn't finalized in the record, but the tenor suggests a pitching-forward series so far. Game 3 features a matchup that could tilt back toward the Mets on paper: right-hander Christian Scott takes the mound for New York with a 3.759 ERA, facing off against Philadelphia's Andrew Painter, whose ERA sits at 5.54. If Scott can locate against a Phillies lineup that has shown flashes of real thump, this is the kind of start that keeps the Mets competitive even with the roster attrition they've dealt with all year.
And that attrition has been significant. New York is without Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien, all sidelined with 10-day injury designations, along with Jorge Polanco out for 60 days and Mark Vientos also on a 10-day absence. That's essentially the middle of the order missing, which helps explain both the offensive dip and the minus-43 run differential. In their place, the Mets will lean on players like Bo Bichette, who's averaging 12.6 fantasy points a game but has been wildly inconsistent lately — a 14.5-point outing sandwiched between a 4-point game and a zero. Brett Baty and Carson Benge round out a supporting cast trying to hold the fort; Benge in particular has shown ceiling, with a 30.5-point performance in his last three outings mixed in with two quiet nights.
Philadelphia's lineup, even banged up, looks considerably deeper. Jesús Luzardo remains out for 15 days and Caleb Kilian is shelved for the same window, while Adolis García, Johan Rojas, Brad Keller and Felix Reyes are all working through 60-day absences — a lot of production missing from that group. But the Phillies still trot out Kyle Schwarber (15.7 FP average, with a monster 32.5-point game in his last three), Trea Turner (13.4 average and remarkably consistent — 14, 8.5 and 19.5 points in his last three), and Bryce Harper (13.6 average, capped by a 19-point outing his last time out). Luis Arraez, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm have all shown they can go off on any given night, with Bohm putting together three straight games north of 11 fantasy points. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card of the group — he posted a 51-point explosion in his last three games after two quiet outings, exactly the kind of volatility that makes catchers must-watch on any given afternoon.
Head-to-head history this season has been a mixed bag, with the season series going back and forth — Mets winning three of the five meetings referenced, but Philadelphia grabbing the two it needed at inopportune times for New York. There's no reason to expect Saturday to break sharply in either direction based on history alone; this one will come down to which version of each pitching staff shows up.
Given Scott's clear edge in ERA over Painter, and the fact that New York has actually shown some pop against quality pitching even in a down year, I expect this to be closer than the records suggest, at least through six innings. But Philadelphia's lineup depth — even without García and Rojas — should be enough to grind out at-bats late and pull away. Look for the Phillies to take Game 3 by a score of 6-3, while the Mets continue searching for answers in a lineup missing too many key pieces to sustain length starts pitching duels.
