Cubs and Reds Meet in Series Finale as Peterson and Lowder Battle
Sunday afternoon closes out a three-game set between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Chicago Cubs will send David Peterson to the mound against a Cincinnati club that has lost three of its last five games. First pitch is set for 1:40 PM ET, with the finale carrying weight for a Cubs team in playoff contention and a Reds team simply trying to salvage respectability down the stretch.
This is Game 3 of 3 in the series. The broader body of work between these clubs this season tells a story of streakiness on both sides. Chicago has won three of the five meetings between these teams this year, and blowouts have been part of the theme — including a 17-5 Cubs win — rather than tight, tension-filled finishes. Sunday's finale could easily follow that script given the pitching matchup on paper.
The records alone frame this as a mismatch. Chicago sits at 83-68, riding a +141 run differential built on an offense averaging 5.3 runs a game against a pitching staff conceding 4.4. Cincinnati, at 71-82, is bleeding in the opposite direction — 4.1 runs scored, 5.1 allowed, a -154 differential that ranks among the uglier marks in the league. The Reds have dropped three of their last five, including two blowout losses to the Dodgers sandwiched around a win. That kind of inconsistency has defined Cincinnati's second half, and Sunday's series finale offers little reason for optimism against a Cubs lineup still humming.
On the mound, neither starter enters with dominant numbers. Rhett Lowder takes the ball for Cincinnati carrying a 5.791 ERA, while David Peterson counters for Chicago at 5.112. Both pitchers have been hittable this season, which could set up another high-scoring affair consistent with the trend in this season series. Given Cincinnati's offensive struggles and Chicago's ability to grind out at-bats, the edge here leans toward the Cubs simply having more firepower to punish mistakes.
Injuries continue to gut the Reds' lineup in ways that are hard to overstate. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson are all sidelined, stripping Cincinnati of four everyday contributors across the infield and behind the plate. Add Hunter Greene and Michael Toglia to the long-term injury list, and it's clear why this roster has scuffled to find consistent offense. Eugenio Suárez remains a steadying veteran presence at DH, averaging 12.8 fantasy points on the season, while Sal Stewart has been a name to watch after posting 33 and 18 points in two of his last three outings, though he followed that with a zero. JJ Bleday and TJ Friedl round out a Reds attack that will need big days from its healthy pieces to keep pace.
Chicago isn't fully healthy either — Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are both out, and the Cubs' bullpen has taken a beating with Shelby Miller, Ben Brown, Porter Hodge, Phil Maton and Riley Martin all on extended absences, plus Justin Steele out for the season among starters. But the lineup Chicago trots out still has bite. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been must-watch lately, exploding for 75.5 and 65.5 fantasy points in two of his last three games sandwiched around a scoreless outing — the kind of volatility that makes him a game-breaker when he connects. Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and Carson Kelly give Chicago a deep, professional lineup capable of scoring in bunches, particularly against a taxed Reds bullpen that's had to cover for an injury-ravaged rotation all season.
No fantasy point projections are available for this matchup, so there's no clean start-or-fade read here — but the underlying form is unmistakable. Chicago is the healthier, deeper, more dangerous offensive team. Cincinnati is playing out the string with a lineup missing four regulars and a pitching staff that's been overworked and underwhelming.
Expect Chicago's lineup to get to Lowder early, with Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki setting the tone atop a deep order, while Peterson does just enough to keep Cincinnati's shorthanded attack in check. The Reds will scratch across some runs — Suárez and Stewart are due for a bounce-back — but the Cubs' offensive depth should give them the edge in the series finale.
