Rangers and Mets Play Out the String, But There's Still Baseball to Be Played
Nobody's chasing a pennant here, and that's fine. Wednesday night, the Texas Rangers and New York Mets play Game 2 of a three-game set that means plenty to the two rosters trying to finish September with something to build on, even if October holds no place for either club at this point in the standings. The Mets took the opener 6-3, and now it's on the Rangers to even the series before the finale.
Texas sits at 78-79 through 157 games, scoring 4.2 runs a night while surrendering 4.4 — a modest minus-37 run differential that tells the story of a team treading water all year. New York is at 72-85, with almost identical offensive output (4.3 runs a game) but a nearly matching leak on the run-prevention side (4.5 allowed, minus-38 differential). These are mirror-image ballclubs right now, both playing out a schedule that's already told them who they are.
The form lines add some intrigue. The Rangers have been streaky — a loss to the Mets, a loss to Toronto, back-to-back wins over the Blue Jays, then a one-run defeat to Boston. The Mets, meanwhile, are coming off a wild stretch against Philadelphia: a blowout loss, a blowout win, another win, then a shutout loss, plus that series-opening win over Texas. Neither team has found any real rhythm, which is what tends to happen in September when the standings have already rendered a verdict.
The pitching matchup favors the road team on paper. Nolan McLean takes the ball for New York with a 3.18 ERA, clearly the more effective arm in this one, and he'll be working against a Texas lineup that's dealt with real attrition — Cal Quantrill, Jack Leiter, Jose Corniell, Carter Baumler, Cole Winn and Jalen Beeks are all out of the bullpen mix or rotation picture in some form, which has forced the Rangers to lean on whatever they can scrape together on the mound all year. Cody Bradford gets the ball for Texas at home, sporting a 4.19 ERA, a number that puts him squarely in "needs a big lineup night" territory against a McLean-fronted Mets team that's shown it can hit in bursts, as evidenced by that 10-3 output against the Phillies earlier this week.
Both rosters are dealing with real absences beyond the pitching staff. Corey Seager, Josh Jung and Evan Carter are all out for Texas, gutting the left side of the infield and center field. New York is missing Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos — an almost unthinkable list of names to scratch from a lineup card, and it explains why both offenses have underperformed their raw talent all season.
For fantasy purposes on JockBroker, the players still drawing at-bats become that much more valuable. Wyatt Langford has been the hottest bat in the Rangers' lineup, with a 32.5-point outburst among his last three games, well above his 13.2 season average, and he profiles as the clearest start on the Texas side given the absences around him forcing more volume his way. Joc Pederson also merits attention — his projected 10.7 fantasy points for this game sits above his 9.2 season average, and with a 30-point game in his last three showings, the power is trending in the right direction against a Mets staff that's had trouble closing games out.
On the Mets' side, Carson Benge is the name to know. He's averaging 12.6 fantasy points a night and has been wildly productive of late — 29 and 47-point performances mixed into his last three outings — making him one of the more explosive fantasy options in this matchup regardless of the absences around him. Bo Bichette, also averaging 12.6, gives the Mets a second reliable source of production at the top of the order.
Fade Ezequiel Duran for Texas — his last three games (6, 5.5, 0 points) show a bat that's gone cold at the wrong time, and Jake Burger's wild variance (0, 33.5, 0) makes him more lottery ticket than lineup lock. Brett Baty is projected at 8.3 points, actually a shade below his 9.3 season average, suggesting a quieter night is expected even with recent flashes of production.
Given McLean's clear edge on the mound and the Mets' offense trending upward after that Phillies split, expect New York to control the middle innings and lean on its bullpen to close it out. Rangers rally late but come up just short.
Prediction: Mets 5, Rangers 4.
