Padres Look to Bury the Skid as Diamondbacks Roll Into San Diego Riding Their Own Hot Streak
San Diego and Arizona have made a habit of beating each other's brains in all season long, and Game 1 of this three-game set in San Diego should be no different. The Padres enter at 87-70, still boasting a plus-34 run differential that speaks to a genuinely good baseball team, while the Diamondbacks sit at 83-74 with a differential of just plus-4 — a club that's been getting by more than dominating. But records only tell part of the story here, because both of these teams are trending in opposite directions coming off wildly different last five games.
San Diego just got run out of its own building by the Dodgers, an ugly 0-7 shutout loss that snapped what had been a scorching stretch. Before that face-plant, the Padres reeled off four straight wins, including three blowouts against Miami by a combined score of 22-11 and a 9-2 demolition of Colorado. That's a lineup that's clearly capable of putting up crooked numbers in bunches — the question Friday night is which version shows up after the Dodgers reminder that even good teams have bad nights.
Arizona, meanwhile, arrives having won three of its last five, capping that stretch with a 7-2 win over Colorado in their most recent outing. Before that, the Diamondbacks split a series with the Yankees, taking two straight (8-4 and 5-3) before dropping the finale 2-9, and they were also knocked off 3-4 by Miami earlier in that stretch. They're not the juggernaut San Diego was a week ago, but they're a team that's shown it can hang with good competition, evidenced by taking two of three from a Yankees club that isn't walking through anyone's door easily.
The pitching matchup tilts heavily in the Padres' favor on paper. Casey Mize takes the ball for San Diego with a 3.958 ERA, a legitimate mid-rotation arm who gives his lineup a chance every time out. Zac Gallen counters for Arizona, but his 6.125 ERA is a number that should have Diamondbacks fans wincing. Gallen has had the stuff to dominate in the past, but if he's pitching to that kind of run prevention right now, San Diego's lineup — even without some key pieces — should find opportunities to do damage early and often.
That injury report matters for both sides. The Padres are without Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar for shorter stretches, but the bigger losses are long-term: Ramón Laureano, Luis Rengifo, Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito are all out for the season on the 60-day list, and touted relievers Bryan Hoeing and Jason Adam join them there too, with Jeremiah Estrada on a 15-day absence. That's a lot of pitching depth and outfield flexibility missing, though it hasn't stopped this offense from clicking recently. Arizona's absences hit differently — Tyler Locklear, A.J. Puk, Andrew Saalfrank, Cristian Mena and Ryan Thompson are all shelved for 60 days, gutting some rotation and bullpen depth, while Ketel Marte's shorter-term absence and the release of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. thin out that lineup further.
At the plate, San Diego's top of the order carries real firepower. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been must-watch lately, following up a quiet 4-point game with 26 and 36.5-point outputs his last two times out — exactly the kind of explosiveness that can flip a game in an instant. Xander Bogaerts has also heated up, posting 23 and 19.5 points in his last two games after a modest start to that stretch. Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado have been streakier, but both have shown flashes of the production that makes this lineup dangerous top to bottom.
Arizona counters with its own thunder. Nolan Arenado has been an absolute monster of late, dropping 42 and 39 fantasy points in back-to-back games before a quieter 13-point showing — that's a future Hall of Famer heating up at exactly the right time. Geraldo Perdomo has similarly caught fire with 23 and 28-point efforts sandwiched around a cooler game, while Gabriel Moreno has been steady with consecutive 20-point performances behind the plate. Corbin Carroll remains Arizona's engine at the top of the lineup, and Lars Nootbaar's 19.5-point outburst suggests he could be heating up as well after a couple of quiet nights.
This is a season series that has gone back and forth all year, with neither club able to establish real control, and Game 1 of this set feels like it could follow that same unpredictable script. But the pitching gap here is simply too wide to ignore. Mize gives the Padres a real chance to slow down an Arizona lineup that's shown it can score in bunches, while Gallen's struggles could open the floodgates for a San Diego offense that just proved last week it's capable of putting up eight or nine runs in a night.
Expect the Padres to bounce back from that Dodgers embarrassment in a big way, riding Tatis Jr. and Bogaerts to an offensive outburst while Mize does just enough to keep Arizona's bats in check. San Diego takes Game 1, 8-4, and sends a message that last Friday's shutout was much the exception, not the rule.
