Yankees Look to Close Out Orioles in Series Finale
The New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday afternoon in the finale of a three-game regular-season set, with first pitch scheduled for 3:20 PM EDT. This is Game 3 of the series, and after two matchups earlier in the week, the Yankees will look to take the set as the calendar turns toward the stretch run.
New York enters at 91-67, a mark that reflects one of the better runs in baseball this year — the Yankees are averaging 4.6 runs a game while allowing just 3.7, a run differential of plus-136 that speaks to a roster built to both mash and pitch. Baltimore, at 78-81, has had a rougher go of it, scoring 4.4 runs a game but surrendering 4.6, landing at minus-26 on the season. The gap between these two clubs is real, and it shows up not just in the standings but in the way each team has trended lately.
The Yankees have won three of their last five, including a pair of blowouts against Tampa Bay — a 9-2 rout and a 6-4 win — sandwiched around a 1-6 loss to the same Rays club. They dropped their most recent outing, an 8-4 defeat to Arizona, but the underlying form suggests a lineup capable of erupting in a hurry. Baltimore, meanwhile, took three straight from Toronto by matching 4-2, 4-2 and 4-3 scores before running into a buzzsaw against Milwaukee, dropping back-to-back shutout-style losses, 3-0 and 1-0. The Orioles have shown they can win low-scoring, well-pitched games, but they've also shown they can go cold in a hurry when the bats go quiet.
Head-to-head play this season has tilted heavily toward the Bronx. New York has taken four of five meetings, including a stretch in August where the Yankees won three straight, and Baltimore's lone win in the sample came back in May. That history, combined with the current form, makes this a game the Yankees will be expected to control — but Baltimore has proven capable of pulling off results in games like this one all year.
On the mound, Baltimore turns to Shane Baz, who carries a 4.108 ERA into the start. New York's starter is not yet announced, leaving some uncertainty on how the Yankees will approach the finale, but given the lineup's recent scoring output against Tampa Bay, the Orioles' pitching staff will need to be sharp regardless of who's on the bump for the home side.
Injuries continue to shape both rosters heavily. The Yankees are without Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and José Caballero, all sidelined, along with longer-term absences for Giancarlo Stanton and Kervin Castro, plus rotation pieces Clarke Schmidt and Ryan Weathers. That's a significant chunk of the everyday lineup and pitching depth missing, which makes the production from the healthy regulars all the more important. Ben Rice has been up and down of late — a quiet 6-point game, then a 60-point eruption, then nothing — while Heliot Ramos has trended upward, following a 1-point clunker with back-to-back double-digit fantasy days. Luis García Jr. has been streaky as well, with a strong game followed by two scoreless outings.
Baltimore's injury report is just as crowded. Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Luis Robert Jr. and Blaze Alexander are all unavailable, and the Orioles are also missing key arms in Zach Eflin, Colin Selby, Kyle Bradish, Ryan Helsley and Keegan Akin, along with infielder Jordan Westburg and outfielder Tyler O'Neill. Against that backdrop, Pete Alonso has been the offensive engine, closing with a 27.5-point game and then a monster 53-point outing his last time out. Gunnar Henderson followed a pair of quiet games with a 43-point explosion, and Coby Mayo has flashed occasional pop, while catcher Carlos Narváez has struggled to find consistent production.
No fantasy point projections are available for this matchup, so there's no start or fade case to make here — but the recent trends are worth watching. Alonso and Henderson both showed signs of heating up in their last outings, while the Yankees' injury-thinned lineup will need Rice and Ramos to keep producing if the absences of Judge and company are going to be masked.
Given New York's run-differential advantage, its recent head-to-head dominance over Baltimore, and the uncertainty around Baltimore's shorthanded lineup facing a Yankees offense that's shown it can explode against comparable pitching, look for the Yankees to close out the series with a bit of late-game firepower.
