By the time first pitch arrives Sunday afternoon at 3:05 ET, both the Washington Nationals and New York Mets will be playing out the string in a lost season, but that doesn't mean Game 3 of this three-game set lacks storylines. With the Nationals sitting at 75-84 and the Mets at 73-86, neither club is chasing anything beyond pride and evaluation time for younger players down the stretch. This is regular-season baseball in its final stretch, not a race for October, and the series finale gives both front offices one more look at what they have heading into the offseason.
The two teams have split recent form in wildly different ways. Washington enters having gone 3-2 in its last five, including an 8-5 win and a 4-2 win sandwiched around a lopsided 2-9 loss to Detroit, then a 3-5 setback to St. Louis before bouncing back. New York has been just as uneven, dropping its last outing 1-3 to Texas after ripping off back-to-back wins over the Rangers, then splitting its two-game tune-up against Philadelphia with a 2-7 loss and a 10-3 blowout win. Neither team has found any real consistency, which tracks with two clubs whose combined record sits well under .500.
The pitching matchup is the headline here, and it's a lopsided one on paper. DJ Herz takes the mound for Washington carrying an ERA of 9.00, a brutal number that speaks to how difficult this season has been for a Nationals rotation that has been decimated by injury. Washington is already without Connelly Early, Matt Waldron and Ken Waldichuk — all starters on the 60-day injured list — plus reliever Mitchell Parker, PJ Poulin and Orlando Ribalta also sidelined. That kind of attrition forces a club to lean on arms that wouldn't otherwise be shouldering this workload, and Herz's ERA reflects exactly that reality.
Sean Manaea, by contrast, gives the Mets a legitimate advantage on the mound. His 4.666 ERA isn't dazzling, but stacked against Herz's numbers, it's the clear separator in this series finale. New York has its own rotation issues — Christian Scott and Tylor Megill are both out, the latter on the 60-day list — but Manaea taking the ball Sunday gives the Mets a real edge in the one variable that tends to decide low-stakes September games: who's on the bump.
Beyond the pitchers, both lineups are missing significant pieces. Washington will again be without right fielder James Wood, out with a 10-day injury designation, which removes one of the more dynamic bats from an offense that's already scuffling — Daylen Lile has been shut out in each of his last three outings, Keibert Ruiz has scored in just one of his last three games, and Jacob Young's production has been spotty at best. CJ Abrams remains the engine of this lineup when healthy and locked in, and Nasim Nuñez has shown flashes, but this is not a group built to punish mistakes right now.
New York's absences are even more glaring. Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien and Mark Vientos are all out with 10-day injuries, and Jorge Polanco remains on the 60-day list. That's a staggering amount of firepower missing from a Mets order that was already underperforming its expected output — New York is scoring 4.3 runs per game while allowing 4.5, a run differential of -35 on the season that ranks among the more troubling marks in the league. Bo Bichette and Carson Benge will be leaned on heavily to generate offense in the middle of that lineup, with Brett Baty capable of the kind of spike performance he's shown in flashes recently.
Head-to-head this season, the Mets have owned this matchup, winning four of the first five meetings between these clubs, with Washington's lone win coming back in May. That trend, combined with Manaea's clear edge over Herz, points toward another result in New York's favor Sunday, even with so many key contributors sidelined on both rosters.
Fantasy managers won't have hard numbers to lean on for this one, but the injury report tells its own story — both lineups are operating without several of their best players, which adds real uncertainty to how either offense produces Sunday. With the shorthanded pitching staffs on both sides, run production is anyone's guess in a game that could get away from either starter early.
Given the pitching gap and New York's recent history of success in this series, expect the Mets to close out the set with a workmanlike win over Washington. Look for Manaea to keep the Nationals' lineup off balance long enough for the Mets' offense, thin as it is, to do just enough.
